A national ‘exploratory’ initiative will see the Scottish government work alongside the NHS, communities of doctors and unions to inform the development of Scotland’s medical workforce over the next two decades.

Part of wider NHS reform and renewal plans, the Future Medical Workforce project will inform long-term workforce planning, including training and recruitment, of doctors.

Amidst a reliance on agency workers to fill NHS gaps and doctors facing unemployment despite understaffing, the project seeks to “deliver the medical workforce Scotland needs”.

After the First Minister committed to look into reports of resident doctors facing unemployment despite rising demand for their services, a Scottish government spokesperson told healthandcare.scot work is underway to will hear directly from doctors.

The spokesperson said the initiative aims to about challenges facing the medical workforce hear from across different specialities to deliver the changes needed:

“Following the meeting of the First Minister’s NHS delivery group, the Scottish government will work with NHS Education for Scotland to provide greater transparency on recruitment data including competition ratios, existing training vacancies and the location of training posts to resident doctors in Scotland.

“The Scottish government recognises the calls for greater workforce planning which accounts for the changing landscape of delivering medical care in NHS Scotland, the expectations of patients, and ensures that medical careers remain attractive.

“The Future Medical Workforce project will seek to explore these issues and hear directly from doctors in order to make the improvements to the medical education pipeline and ensure we can deliver the medical workforce Scotland needs.”

The spokesperson emphasised that doctors at all levels make a valuable contribution to NHS Scotland, adding that a “linear career” to consultant or GP is not the only pathway available to resident doctors.

The launch of the project comes after BMA Scotland urged the government to address an alarming lack of progress in tackling consultant vacancies, saying the government’s own figures fail to capture the extent of the workforce crisis.

It also follows renewed calls for investment to expand the number of GPs, to support a shift to preventative, community-based care.

The government says its Future Medical Workforce is currently in its early stages but will model what Scotland’s medical workforce will need to look like in 15 to 20 years.

A Research Advisory Group has already been formed with representatives from NHS Education for Scotland, the General Medical Council, Royal Colleges, the Scottish Medical Schools Board, the Scottish Association of Medical Directors and Directors of Medical Education.

A Scottish government spokesperson told healthandcare.scot the BMA will also “play an important role in this work moving forward”.

Long overdue

Phase 1 of the project is underway and is focused on engagement and workforce modelling. Phase 2 – exploring potential reforms – will start in 2026.

Recommendations from this work will be considered after Phase 2 concludes, and will inform decisions around expanding NHS Scotland doctor training posts – almost two years after the government launched its ‘national conversation’ on NHS reform.

Although the government reached a ‘record’ 2.3% increase in training opportunities with 153 new posts created in 2024, frontline doctors are reporting they are still struggling to secure posts.

Meanwhile, this will be the first year since 2021 that medical school intakes will not be increased, following calls from current Scottish BMA medical students to pause the expansion unless adequate postgraduate training could be guaranteed.

The expansion of medical school spots has outpaced the growth in speciality training posts in recent years, leaving many doctors unemployed, or considering moving country for work.

BMA Scotland’s Resident Doctor Committee Chair Dr Chris Smith told healthandcare.scot work to improve workforce medical planning is long overdue:

“There is an emerging crisis around medical unemployment as a result of a lack of training places and jobs, even though Scotland clearly needs more doctors.

“The Scottish government say they are committed to making Scotland the place of choice for doctors to work and train, so it is vital that Ministers and indeed all stakeholders ensure there is urgent action taken to ensure the opportunities to work and train actually exist.

“BMA Scotland has long been clear that a workforce plan is needed and overdue; the Future Medical Workforce project is in the early stages, and we await further details.”

Read more: Longest NHS waits a funding priority, says government; First Minster pledges people will see GP sooner; Corridor care ‘the norm’ in struggling hospitals; Government promises to up NHS activity; Watchdog criticises homelessness service cuts; NHS Scotland: waiting lists and beyond; “Relentless focus” on addressing health inequalities; NHS open to private help for waiting times; Government ‘lacks urgency’ on care reforms

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