A rise of nearly 900 deaths in Scotland that are not linked to covid-19 has raised fears that people are staying away from hospital and missing out on life-saving treatment.

Linda Bauld, Professor of Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, said delayed or cancelled treatments, and people not contacting their doctor, were likely to be behind the extra deaths.

Professor Bauld said social distancing appeared to be stopping the health system from being overwhelmed and now was the right time to restart NHS services that had been suspended.

There were 859 more registered deaths from conditions such as cancer, dementia and heart disease in the five weeks from the 15^th of March to the 19^th of April than there were in the same period over the last five years, according to weekly death figures released by National Records of Scotland.

A nationwide lockdown was declared by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the 23^rd March, the same week Scotland recorded its first virus deaths.

Since then there have been 167 more cancer deaths than would be expected in a usual year, 290 more Alzheimer’s and dementia deaths, and 123 from heart disease and stroke.

Another 321 are attributed to ‘other’ factors, which include diseases such as diabetes, Parkinson’s and digestive system diseases, as well as accidents, assaults and suicides.

There were 1,546 deaths from covid-19 in the same period, NRS statistics show, meaning there have been just over 2,400 more deaths in Scotland than an average year.

Politicians and medical leaders have been urging the public not to stay away from hospital.

Asked about the increase in non-covid excess deaths yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon said it was too early to draw “definite conclusions”.

She continued: “A key part of our thinking as we move forward will be how we can restart some of the things that have had to be postponed in the health service and a key message, right now, even with all that change to how the health service is operating, is that it remains open.”

Professor Bauld told healthandcare.scot some cancer treatments that extend patient’s lives have “effectively been stopped”, meaning deaths that would have been spread out over a longer period are happening at once.

“We know more about heart disease,” she added, “because we’ve seen from the data in London in terms of the callouts for paramedics people are basically leaving it too late, having chest pain et cetera, and sadly not seeking help, not going to their GP and not going to A&E.

“With stroke it’s the same scenario, people don’t want to go anywhere near the health service because of covid, it gets too late and you get more deaths from stroke as a result.”

Jeane Freeman announced the NHS in Scotland would move to an emergency footing on the 17^th March, with non-urgent procedures and appointments cancelled.

“I think now is the time for us to basically get this stuff up and running again,” Professor Bauld said.

“We need to be sending a much stronger message – I think government is doing it now – that the NHS is open for business and secondly we need to be getting the staff who have been told to stop doing things to start doing them again.”

Jane-Claire Judson, Chief Executive at Chest Heart & Stroke Scotland, said “people are dying as a result of feeling they shouldn’t seek medical attention.”

“We understand that people are scared to go to hospital or don’t want to feel like they are a burden to the NHS, but it’s vital that we still take urgent action and continue to treat stroke and heart attack as medical emergencies.

Alzheimer Scotland’s Chief Executive Henry Simmons added: “At present many other people will be living in the later stages of the illness with extremely high levels of health care needs and many of these individuals will be living at home with their family or in a care home.

“Therefore this significant increase in the numbers of people with dementia that have died needs further investigation in order to ensure that we are doing all that can be done to protect and care for people with dementia during these unprecedented times.”

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