The Scottish government says the pressure on Scotland’s NHS from the second main peak of the covid-19 pandemic is “already very real”.

The numbers were revealed by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in a statement to Parliament this afternoon where she announced are national stay-at-home order for January as Scotland tries to stay one step ahead of the new variant of the coronavirus which is showing itself to be 70% more likely to be passed from one person to another than the strains prevalent during the first wave.

NHS Ayrshire & Arran is currently at 96% of its Covid capacity, she said. Meanwhile the largest health board, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, along with NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Borders will be reported to be above 60% of capacity when hospital and intensive care unit numbers are published tomorrow.

Scotland’s intensive care units are currently treating more people than they would during a normal winter although the number of covid-19 patients in ICU is significantly lower than April, reflecting the improved treatment options available.

But Ms Sturgeon told Parliament the NHS is bracing itself for a significant increase in the number of people needing hospital treatment – with projections that, without the new lockdown, hospital covid bed will be “breached” within three or four weeks:

“People who are in hospital and ICU now are likely to have been infected 10 days to 2 weeks ago,” she said.

“Given that the number of cases has increased significantly since then, we can expect to see significantly increased pressure on the NHS over the course of this month.

“Contingency plans remain in place to double and then treble ICU capacity if necessary and the NHS Louisa Jordan continues to be available to help meet demand – as indeed it has been doing in recent months. 12,000 patients have attended there for scans and outpatient appointment; nearly 5000 NHS staff and students have been trained there; and it is currently being used for Covid vaccinations.

“In short, NHS services are coping at present – although the pressure on frontline staff is considerable.

“But already, in some areas, the position is fragile, and getting more challenging.

“And if the rate of increase in case numbers that we have seen in the past two weeks was to continue unchecked, there would be a real risk of our NHS being overwhelmed – even with contingency plans in place.”

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